[Pub Trends] June Pick Rate Shifts

Here lies the changes in pub pick rates for the June 2014. If you are interested in the pick rate shift from last month, click here.

Landscape

The Summit and ESL One LAN were the two major tournaments this month. The TI4 Immortals were released at the very end of last month, and the TI compendium 10 Hero and Daily Hero challenges are currently active. 6.81b came out a week into the month. These are all potential factors that have influenced hero pick rate changes.

Method

The June pick rates have been compared to those of the previous month, May 2014. Months are sometimes drawn a few hours beforehand. I also use both raw percentage and actual percentage. A hero who goes from 4% pick rate to 2% pick rate has only gone down 2% raw percentage. But he has gone down 50% actual percentage, as that hero is now only in half the games he was previously. Both raw and actual percentages are useful in seeing shifts in pick rates.

Biggest Winners

June Raw Gains

Gains less than 1.5 not shown

Heroes with recently released immortals seem to be the biggest winner of this month, alongside heroes who had a surge in pro scene picks such as PA, Tinker and Faceless Void. Tinker happens to have both a surge in pro scene play and an immortal, and has skyrocketed by 5.46% raw percent. Juggernaut has neither however, and still managed to a solid gain (very low tier in pro scene). Off the back of a 0.5% gain last month, Juggernaut seems to be the surprise this month, perhaps pubbers noticed the effects from the 6.81b changes, such as to his BAT (1.5 -> 1.4).

June Actual Gain

Gains less than 15% not shown

While fairly similar, you’ll notice that comparatively Skywrath Mage and Brewmaster have been increasing in popularity this month. Both are very unpopular heroes in pubs, but have been seeing steady gains of late. SM had a steady month but primarily saw massive gains over the past week, which suggest to me his increase in pro-scene play is the likely cause here. Monkey see, monkey do.

Apparently ‘обезьяна’ is Russian for monkey, but doesn’t look humorous enough for some comedic english-russian hybrid sentence stating how pubbers like to copy pro players. ‘Mono’ is the Spanish equivalent though, so I guess perhaps “Dota players have a bad case of Mono”. Ok, that was bad.

Biggest Losers

June Raw Loss

Losses less than 1% not shown

Pudge and Invoker took huge hits this month, most likely as people flocked to the shiny new things (Immortal/Pro-scene heroes). It would appear that the players who like the pick Pudge and Invoker, are also the players that chase after the latest shiny thing. The rest of the drops appear to be fallout of the 6.81 changes, as last month they were the shiny new thing. SF and LS are at the lower end of the spectrum, but are still interesting to note.

June Actual Loss

Losses less than 10% not shown

The 6.80 trifecta of Phoenix, Terrorblade and Ember Spirit are all still dropping rapidly as time ticks on. Their recent nerfs hit them hard and have been dropping ever since as they quickly become towards the bottom end of the hero list. All three heroes dropped significantly last month as well.

Overall the month’s changes seems to be controlled by pro-scene picks and immortal heroes, with some fallout from the 6.81 and 6.81b patches. On the bright side, that’s a lot less Pudge and Invoker.

 

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[Pub Trends] 6.81b Win Rate Changes

With 6.81b out for almost a week, I did the data mining to see the effects it’s had on heroes. If you are looking for the change in pick rates for the patch, click here.

Method

The 6.81b win rates have been compared to the entire win rates for 6.81. Although the last week of 6.81 would have been most optimal, I was unable to obtain this data. It’s also important to note the change in pick rates during the period, as linked above, are a contributing factor to the change in win rates. Just like the buffs/nerfs are.

Biggest Winners

6.81b Raw WR GainsMild gains across the board for the buffed heroes. Enigmas 8 -> 11 seconds on Midnight Pulse proved fruitful towards his winrate. While Omni’s constant degen aura buffs have bumped him up a notch to the second highest win rate of the patch at 56.79%, behind only Necrophos’ 59.24%.

Most notably however would have to be Tinker, a hero who received no changes in 6.81b. However if you read my pick rate article, you’ll know that Tinker’s pick rate went through the roof recently – most likely due to Immortals. It would appear that this has had a substantially positive effect on his win rate. My hypothesis to this has a couple of stages. Basically the more someone plays Dota 2, the better they are. While the more they play, the more likely they are to have a Compendium, and thus a Tinker Immortal. This would cause the TI Immortals to have a bigger effect on high tier games, than very low tier games, since a higher proportion of good players have Immortals than really new and bad ones. It thus makes sense that Tinker is being played more by a player base that is skewed more towards better players. This would cause the win rate of the hero to go up, as these players will be better at effectively itemizing and utilizing the hero.

Thus I conclude that Tinker has gone up in win rate, due to the influx of Immortal Tinkers, which has caused the average Tinker player to be better at the game than before.

Biggest Losers

6.81b Raw WR Losses

Pudge is the odd one out here, since the other 5 heroes were nerfed. Pudge is probably also effected by the Immortals, but in the inverse of Tinker. However the bigger factor is that the Rot bug was recently fixed, which for a large part of the patch boosted Pudge’s win rate.

Overall Tinker’s win rate shift is probably most curious, and something I will continue to watch. I do however doubt that a bug has caused a surge in win rate, my Immortal hypothesis makes sense to me. Especially considering Tinker is more skill oriented (including mechanical skills like fast finger-work), than other immortal heroes. He also has a tendency to be chronically misunderstood at ultra low levels of the game – where there shouldn’t be a compendium in sight.

[Pub Trends] 6.81b Pick Rate Changes

6.81b has been out for just less than a week now, so I decided to run the numbers on the shift in pick rates for pub heroes. If you are looking for the change in win rates during this period, click here. If you are interested in the pick rate shift from April to May, click here.

Landscape

The Summit LAN has been played during 6.81b, while the TI 2014 immortals were released just a few days before the patch. Chest 58 and 59 were also released a few days ago, with full sets for AM, PA, VS, Luna, Mirana, PL, Riki, BS and the rare sets of Venomancer and Lone Druid. The compendium 10 Hero and Daily Hero challenges are currently active. These are all potential factors that have influenced hero pick rate changes.

Method

The 6.81b pick rates have been compared to those of the previous month, May 2014. I also use both raw percentage and actual percentage. A hero who goes from 4% pick rate to 2% pick rate has only gone down 2% raw percentage. But he has gone down 50% actual percentage, as that hero is now only in half the games he was previously. Both raw and actual percentages are useful in seeing shifts in pick rates.

Biggest Winners

6.81b Raw Gains

You will notice that increase in pick rates are mostly dominated by heroes with the recently released Immortal items with Tinker coming out in front by far. However both Doom and PA increased. Doom was nerfed with the mana cost on Devour, while PA received a 100 -> 130 attack speed increase on Blink Strike in the patch. She also happened to rise 2.29 raw % from April > May, as she is increasingly becoming a very popular Pub hero. The 2 immortals not pictured are Warlock and Axe. Warlock gained 0.54%, while Axe didn’t move. Axe decreased in pick rate in May as well, going down -2.48%, so perhaps the Immortal just countered the heroes declining pick rate.

6.81b Actual Gains

The actual % is very similar, but Tinker again is the hero to note. Tinker was in 73% more games in 6.81b than he was in May. That is an incredible increase in play, especially as this was high before Tinker was picked up in quite a few games at The Summit LAN. Pubbers have really latched onto Tinker since the Immortal came out, and most likely in higher tier games. You would assume that the more someone plays Dota, the better they are at the game, and the more likely they are to buy a compendium. It thus stands to reason that the pubs that are hit hardest by token Immortal picks would be higher tier games. So while Tinker is a 73% increase across the board, you can presume that this is higher in environments that have a high amount of compendium players, which is probably high tier. This is of course assuming that better players are still swayed to pick a hero based on a recently released Immortal.

Biggest Losers

There were some major losses this patch, including NAR’Vi’s 1 win to 7 losses at The Summit LAN.

6.81b Raw Losses

Their performance perhaps gives us insight into how TI Qualifier teams will fare at the main event, while the hero losses gives us rather exciting news. Invoker and Pudge dropped significantly since the patch hit. Two stereotypical pub heroes dropped down, with Snipers gains actually overtaking Invoker causing Sniper to become the 2nd most picked pub hero for the patch. I guess the average pubber is not only a Pudge and Invoker picker, but quickly swayed into shiny new things, such as Immortals. I’m skeptical that the rise in mids such as Tinker and Storm have made these two frequent mid heroes drop in pick-rate; I doubt that different mid match-ups would have that significant of an impact on pick rates. To be fair though, Invoker did receive a few nerfs in 6.81b. However the timing of his pick rate change coincides with the Imortals, and not the patch.

Lich and KotL receive the fall out of the recent Aghs buffs, while Ursa and Huskar have the same with their UAM/Orb removal buff.

I also included Ember and Terror, who were under my threshold to include, but conveniently were the next two heroes. They both felt the fallout of the major nerfs 6.81 brought them – dropping ridiculous amounts – and it’s interesting to see that they are still falling as the days tick by.

6.81b Actual Losses

Terrorblade’s -14.77% drop means that Terrorblade is currently half as popular than what he was in April. Ember Spirit – although not pictured – is also picked half as much when compared to April.

PA = EG.RTZ + IF

Outside Immortals, the most statistically significant surge in pub pick rate would have to be Phantom Assassin. As said, PA has been increasing over the past few fortnights, but she also happens to be rising in the pro-scene. Arteezy played PA 4 times at The Summit LAN, EG won all these games (overall they went 11 wins to 6 losses). This includes 2 wins in the Grand Final. The only other PA pick was a loss when played by Fnatic. Enternal Envy has also been toying around with the hero in recent weeks.

Rise of the PA

This is where PA’s pub pick rate over the last week is amazing. She has shot up like no other, and continues to rise. While today’s data is only partially complete; a trend can still be observed. She went from being in 16.5% of games on the 3rd, to 21.9% thus far today. That’s a consistent upwards trend, and is a hero to keep your eye on. She’s on track to be the next Sniper or Mirana.

[Pub Trends] May Pick Rate Shifts

There was many changes in hero popularity for May. Compared to April there was many big events. 6.81 was released, the TI4 Qualifiers took place, the 10 hero challenge was implemented, and Immortals were released at the very end. All these factors as well as general month to month changes are likely to influence hero popularity.

Most Popular

may raw win
The biggest winners were predominantly heroes that saw noticeable or novel buffs in 6.81, with Phantom Assassin being the biggest winner in terms of raw percentage gains. Mirana also continues to rise, and at this rate will take 3rd place from Sniper in the coming months. Bounty Hunter is the oddity, he shot up with no significant change in 6.81. The Cast Range of Track no longer scales per level, but it would appear that people just started to flow to him. While Wraith King was rebalanced in 6.81, he has been proven to be a very popular pick in the Pro Scene, and has a solid winrate on a fairly simple yet mostly enjoyable hero.

may actual win

Statistically the above table shows the actual popularity change by percentage. In the first table, Brewmaster has a 1.49 increase, where he goes from being in 3% of April pubs, to 4.49% of May pubs. This change is only a 1.49 raw percentage change, but is actually a massive 50% increase in Brewmaster picks. For every 2 Brewmasters in April, there was 3 in May. Brewmaster and Earth Spirit are among the least picks heroes overall, but from an actual percentage point they shot up a fair amount. Both Raw Percentage, and Actual Percentage are useful in seeing the trends of popularity shifts.

Least Popular

may raw loss
Ember Spirit and Terrorblade got annihilated off the back of 6.81 nerfs. Ember Spirit was the 9th most Popular hero in April in 16% of all games. He plummeted to 44th most popular hero with a massive decrease. Legion Commander, Drow Ranger, and Riki dropped, despite no nerfs. It seems that a few heroes are merely being displaced by the new and shiny carry heroes. Meanwhile Tusk’s rework has started a decline and I can breathe the shortest sigh of relief as Invoker slowly falls away.

may actual loss

Most Notable here is probably the Naga Siren drops. Although only falling about 0.8 raw percentage points, it now puts her in the bottom 10 heroes. Axe took a beating in both tables as although he is still a very popular hero, his switch to PRD Helix is proving unpopular.

 

Pub Trend: LC is an Offlaners Wet Dream

Straight to the point today. Basically, LC makes it easier to offlane in pubs. Based off my experienced in pub play since her addition, I’ve come to this conclusion. Here’s why…..

Part 1: The Laning
With most “pub jungers”, its often hard to work out where they’re going to lane. Ursa, Lifestealer and Lone Druid for example all jungle fairly frequently in pubs. The problem is that it’s also very common for these heroes to lane. To the point where you can’t really predict if they’re laning or jungling.

LC on the other hand, seems to jungle over 90% of the time. In basically all skill levels.

Part 2: The Problem
So if LC is jungling, it’s thus now either a solo safe lane + offlane duo, or a safelane duo with a solo offlaner. Either situation, is now much easier if you’re a solo offlaner as you’re not up against a trilane.

The other thing about LCs, is that they don’t gank/push. It can actually be fairly hard for her to. So other “High Percentage Junglers” like Chen, Enchantress and Enigma can easily plop out of the jungle and gank/push your lane (or even mid), this LC isn’t going to.

The most important thing about all of this. Is that LC is currently the second most played hero in the game, in 25% of all games played.
Image

Part 3: The Consequences
So now we have: A popular pick, who’s a high percentage jungler who doesn’t push/gank. She is the definition of a pub pick that has made the lanes amazingly weak.

If you – for whatever reason – end up having to offlane solo against a LC team, you are going to have an amazingly easy time. You can pick a solid hero like BB or Timber, sap so much xp/gold, and then go to town. Weaver often works great too.

You are getting way more then you should, to the point where you can humorously enough, not only win your lane. But destroy it. Heroes like Timber and Bristle can just do so much if you give them space, which is exactly what they just gave you.

The funny thing is, normally a solo offlaner gives the jungler space to free farm. But in LCs case, he’s basically going to 100% ignore his safe lane. Which gives you the unique chance to shut down their carry, due to the LC picker.

Part 4: The Disclaimer
– I’m not saying anything about the viability of jungling her. I am simply stating that in my experience, she seems to jungle a lot in pub play.

– I’m not saying you should allow her to free farm, but if solo offlaning is how the lanes have ended up, then you can often make life a living hell for the enemy carry/support, to the point where the FF LC is much less of a problem.