[Pub Trends] 6.81b Win Rate Changes

With 6.81b out for almost a week, I did the data mining to see the effects it’s had on heroes. If you are looking for the change in pick rates for the patch, click here.

Method

The 6.81b win rates have been compared to the entire win rates for 6.81. Although the last week of 6.81 would have been most optimal, I was unable to obtain this data. It’s also important to note the change in pick rates during the period, as linked above, are a contributing factor to the change in win rates. Just like the buffs/nerfs are.

Biggest Winners

6.81b Raw WR GainsMild gains across the board for the buffed heroes. Enigmas 8 -> 11 seconds on Midnight Pulse proved fruitful towards his winrate. While Omni’s constant degen aura buffs have bumped him up a notch to the second highest win rate of the patch at 56.79%, behind only Necrophos’ 59.24%.

Most notably however would have to be Tinker, a hero who received no changes in 6.81b. However if you read my pick rate article, you’ll know that Tinker’s pick rate went through the roof recently – most likely due to Immortals. It would appear that this has had a substantially positive effect on his win rate. My¬†hypothesis to this has a couple of stages. Basically the more someone plays Dota 2, the better they are. While the more they play, the more likely they are to have a Compendium, and thus a Tinker Immortal. This would cause the TI Immortals to have a bigger effect on high tier games, than very low tier games, since a higher proportion of good players have Immortals than really new and bad ones. It thus makes sense that Tinker is being played more by a player base that is skewed more towards better players. This would cause the win rate of the hero to go up, as these players will be better at effectively itemizing and utilizing the hero.

Thus I conclude that Tinker has gone up in win rate, due to the influx of Immortal Tinkers, which has caused the average Tinker player to be better at the game than before.

Biggest Losers

6.81b Raw WR Losses

Pudge is the odd one out here, since the other 5 heroes were nerfed. Pudge is probably also effected by the Immortals, but in the inverse of Tinker. However the bigger factor is that the Rot bug was recently fixed, which for a large part of the patch boosted Pudge’s win rate.

Overall Tinker’s win rate shift is probably most curious, and something I will continue to watch. I do however doubt that a bug has caused a surge in win rate, my Immortal hypothesis makes sense to me. Especially considering Tinker is more skill oriented (including mechanical skills like fast finger-work), than other immortal heroes. He also has a tendency to be chronically misunderstood at ultra low levels of the game – where there shouldn’t be a compendium in sight.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s