[Pub Trends] 6.81b Pick Rate Changes

6.81b has been out for just less than a week now, so I decided to run the numbers on the shift in pick rates for pub heroes. If you are looking for the change in win rates during this period, click here. If you are interested in the pick rate shift from April to May, click here.

Landscape

The Summit LAN has been played during 6.81b, while the TI 2014 immortals were released just a few days before the patch. Chest 58 and 59 were also released a few days ago, with full sets for AM, PA, VS, Luna, Mirana, PL, Riki, BS and the rare sets of Venomancer and Lone Druid. The compendium 10 Hero and Daily Hero challenges are currently active. These are all potential factors that have influenced hero pick rate changes.

Method

The 6.81b pick rates have been compared to those of the previous month, May 2014. I also use both raw percentage and actual percentage. A hero who goes from 4% pick rate to 2% pick rate has only gone down 2% raw percentage. But he has gone down 50% actual percentage, as that hero is now only in half the games he was previously. Both raw and actual percentages are useful in seeing shifts in pick rates.

Biggest Winners

6.81b Raw Gains

You will notice that increase in pick rates are mostly dominated by heroes with the recently released Immortal items with Tinker coming out in front by far. However both Doom and PA increased. Doom was nerfed with the mana cost on Devour, while PA received a 100 -> 130 attack speed increase on Blink Strike in the patch. She also happened to rise 2.29 raw % from April > May, as she is increasingly becoming a very popular Pub hero. The 2 immortals not pictured are Warlock and Axe. Warlock gained 0.54%, while Axe didn’t move. Axe decreased in pick rate in May as well, going down -2.48%, so perhaps the Immortal just countered the heroes declining pick rate.

6.81b Actual Gains

The actual % is very similar, but Tinker again is the hero to note. Tinker was in 73% more games in 6.81b than he was in May. That is an incredible increase in play, especially as this was high before Tinker was picked up in quite a few games at The Summit LAN. Pubbers have really latched onto Tinker since the Immortal came out, and most likely in higher tier games. You would assume that the more someone plays Dota, the better they are at the game, and the more likely they are to buy a compendium. It thus stands to reason that the pubs that are hit hardest by token Immortal picks would be higher tier games. So while Tinker is a 73% increase across the board, you can presume that this is higher in environments that have a high amount of compendium players, which is probably high tier. This is of course assuming that better players are still swayed to pick a hero based on a recently released Immortal.

Biggest Losers

There were some major losses this patch, including NAR’Vi’s 1 win to 7 losses at The Summit LAN.

6.81b Raw Losses

Their performance perhaps gives us insight into how TI Qualifier teams will fare at the main event, while the hero losses gives us rather exciting news. Invoker and Pudge dropped significantly since the patch hit. Two stereotypical pub heroes dropped down, with Snipers gains actually overtaking Invoker causing Sniper to become the 2nd most picked pub hero for the patch. I guess the average pubber is not only a Pudge and Invoker picker, but quickly swayed into shiny new things, such as Immortals. I’m skeptical that the rise in mids such as Tinker and Storm have made these two frequent mid heroes drop in pick-rate; I doubt that different mid match-ups would have that significant of an impact on pick rates. To be fair though, Invoker did receive a few nerfs in 6.81b. However the timing of his pick rate change coincides with the Imortals, and not the patch.

Lich and KotL receive the fall out of the recent Aghs buffs, while Ursa and Huskar have the same with their UAM/Orb removal buff.

I also included Ember and Terror, who were under my threshold to include, but conveniently were the next two heroes. They both felt the fallout of the major nerfs 6.81 brought them – dropping ridiculous amounts – and it’s interesting to see that they are still falling as the days tick by.

6.81b Actual Losses

Terrorblade’s -14.77% drop means that Terrorblade is currently half as popular than what he was in April. Ember Spirit – although not pictured – is also picked half as much when compared to April.

PA = EG.RTZ + IF

Outside Immortals, the most statistically significant surge in pub pick rate would have to be Phantom Assassin. As said, PA has been increasing over the past few fortnights, but she also happens to be rising in the pro-scene. Arteezy played PA 4 times at The Summit LAN, EG won all these games (overall they went 11 wins to 6 losses). This includes 2 wins in the Grand Final. The only other PA pick was a loss when played by Fnatic. Enternal Envy has also been toying around with the hero in recent weeks.

Rise of the PA

This is where PA’s pub pick rate over the last week is amazing. She has shot up like no other, and continues to rise. While today’s data is only partially complete; a trend can still be observed. She went from being in 16.5% of games on the 3rd, to 21.9% thus far today. That’s a consistent upwards trend, and is a hero to keep your eye on. She’s on track to be the next Sniper or Mirana.

Advertisements

5 thoughts on “[Pub Trends] 6.81b Pick Rate Changes

  1. Pingback: [Pub Trends] 6.81b Win Rate Changes | Zota

  2. It’s not a big surprise that PA is getting picked so much now. When a character whose entire concept is RNG (inherently flawed) is buffed to such an extend that pros deem it “viable”, it means that in reality (and especially in public play) it is very, very overpowered.
    The hero was buffed about 30% in strength over the past few months. That’s HUGE.

    • Or maybe it’s because the team compositions she was completely built around her, playing to her strengths by a lot. Doesn’t help that the enemy team comps weren’t really built at dealing with her either. Let’s see how she fares at the internationals. I can almost guarantee she won’t be picked as often, and any attempts at picking her will likely get countered hard.

      • At most, she’s a niche pick who can snowball, nothing more. Also, just because she was played in competitive does not mean she is OP. Also, icefrog rarely balances with pub play in mind, otherwise, Riki and other heroes like him would have been nerfed to the ground a long time ago, instead of the recent buffs they’ve been getting. Riki also has a higher pub winrate, and a higher pub pick rate then PA. Does that make him OP?

    • Do keep in mind that the biggest reason so many pubbers are picking her now is because they probably saw her do fairly good in the last tournament, and people are going “OMG I WANNA BE JUST LIKE THE PROS LOLOL”. I will not be surprised to see her winrate drop as a result of this, since they’ll likely feed and be useless

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s