By Using Stats, I Have Found The Trench

Warning: This is an article I’ve been sitting on for 12 months because I had some issues with it. But I thought that it’s interesting enough to  put it out there.

I lost a game as Legion Commander yesterday with 344 bonus damage from Duel. I played pretty well and still lost. It made me wonder if you could find out if you are in the Trench simply by using the data of your team, and working out how well you did. I define ‘The Trench’ as simply a place where the performance of your team-mates is consistently below your performance. Pro Players are likely to be in The Trench when they play Solo Ranked because their Solo MMR is so ridiculously high that the system places sub par team-mates on their team in order to balance the game. This puts them in a very frustrating Matchmaking Hell. For me, I tend to find that the Australian server size is so small that the pool of players to select team-mates from is too small to find good games for experienced players. This might sound a bit egotistical and ‘douchy’ – any form of positive self-skill analysis generally does – but first off you have to understand two important things.

Two Things

The first thing is that I have over 5500 games of Dota 2, including playing every hero and experimenting around. This is along with watching other people play and constantly trying to find what mistakes I’ve made, such as a few games ago where I regretted buying a Euls on Abaddon for that game. I primarily play Unranked, and I consider myself fairly highly skilled at the game, and very knowledgeable about mechanics and scenarios.

The second thing is that every day the Australian Servers only have 50 – 1,450 searching for a game at any given time. For comparison, EU West has about 1,200 – 11,500 players searching and US East 900 – 3,000. As I described above, this means that the pool of players to MM against is far smaller for me than in other places. The LC game above occurred at about 6:30 am when there was only 150ish people searching for a game, that’s an incredibly small player pool. Servers seem to peak at about 8-10pm server time every night, so if you’re really low or high skilled, you are likely to get the best pool of players to MM you against during this time. Which side-note: this is a very good time to played Ranked if you desire more balanced games.

How To Find If You Are Trenched

To statistically work out if I was in ‘The Trench’ or ‘ELO/MM Hell’, I looked at 100 recent games. I put my last 50 wins in one pile, and my last 50 losses in another pile. I wanted to look at wins and losses entirely separately. I used 3 metrics to determine how well I did in the game: Kill Participation, Hero Damage, and Tower Damage. For each game you rank yourself on these metrics. If you did the most hero damage on your team, you placed first on your team for this metric, so you get a 1 for Hero Damage. If you did the least Tower Damage, then you get a 5. The average should be a 3 if you are in solid matchmaking. An average of 3 means that for every game you do well in (1s and 2s), there are an equal amount of games you do bad in (4s and 5s). An abundance of 4s and 5s means you are getting MM’d with people better than you, whereas an abundance of 1s and 2s means the opposite. AKA lots of 1s and 2s means your have been in MM Hell/a Trench.

FindingTheTrench

My Last 10 Losses Tell An Interesting Story

The scoreboard doesn’t tell the entire story of a game as complex as Dota, but it often includes very important plot points. For example, a Zeus who does well is likely to have High Damage and Kill Participation, but much lower Tower Damage. A Clinkz or Drow on the other hand, being basically entirely single target, are likely to have very High Damage and Tower Damage but lower Participation. Every hero – even Supports – should rate on these three metrics. Even my one Omniknight game I had, I placed last in none of the three metrics, even though this is the only hero in the entire game that my system doesn’t treat too kindly. It should be noted however, that this system is best for players who play a large variety of heroes.

The Mean-ing

When I lose, I actually still perform pretty well on average. In my 10 losses pictured above I had strong metrics for 7 games, including 5 games where I had the best metrics on my team. This is a similar story for my other 40 losses as well. I was playing Carries, Semi-Carries, and Supports in my games, yet still placed very highly.

TrenchMetrics

Amount Of Places For My Last 50 Losses

An average player should have 10 on each metric, as that would mean they have as many 1s as 5s. I had the most Hero Damage on my team for 20 of my 50 losses, which is more than double what it should be. While across the board my performance was heavily skewed towards the upper end of the spectrum.

High Placings On Average Indicate A Trench

High Placings On Average Indicate A Trench

How Do My Wins Measure Up?

My 50 wins were even more incredible. When losing I often did very strongly on my team, however when I won I placed highly in my Metrics non stop. To the point where a disproportional amount of my wins were likely caused my strong performance, reflecting the sentiment people have of Ranked Matchmaking where a “dominate snowball high impact hero” will increase your MMR. The idea being that heavily carrying your teammates in any role is the recipe for success.

Overwhelmingly Performing Towards The Better End Of My Team

Overwhelmingly Performing Towards The Better End Of My Team

I had the highest kill participation in 50% of my winning games, and was the second highest in 25% of them. My Hero Damage was even better, resulting in me having the most or second most amount of damage in 82% of my games (41/50). I faltered on Towers for some wins, getting low results for a wide variety of heroes such as Necrophos, Zeus, Faceless Void, Phoenix, and Lion. I still however performed well on Towers, with 52% of my games being 1s or 2s, which is still above the ‘good matchmaking’ average of 40%. All three metrics for both winning and losing had me performing better than my teammates on average.

 Final Analysis

Performing Well In Multiple Roles

Performing Well In Multiple Roles While Winning

Scoreboard doesn’t mean everything, but it does make a powerful statement. Sure, it can’t tell me ward placing or smokes, but it still can give a good impression of game performance. All of my 100 games were before I devised this MMR Hell Classification System (I’m calling it PDT Rating), and thus I never tried to inflate the numbers during the game, which is very important. I also played a lot of different heroes in a variety of roles (as seen above). Another limitation currently is that it sometimes doesn’t factor in feeding. While this isn’t as much of a problem while winning, it can occur during lost games. However often when someone feeds, they are taken off the map for so long that they end up scoring lower on the Metrics. Although there are some problems, the rating will still give a good impression of the game. To further prove this, I went back to where it all began.

My First Few Losses Ever Are Filled With My Terrible Performance

I went back (just under 4 years) to the start of the Dota 2 Beta, and looked at the data for my first set of games. In the above image are my first Dota 2 losses, and as you can see they were dominated by me being bad. My metrics were consistently 4s and 5s as I was new to the game and was frequently the weakest link in these games. To me, this further cements the integrity and accuracy of using the PDT Rating. I remember being very self aware of how bad I was when I started, and my PDT system has correctly identified how trashy I once was.

You Can Work This Out Too!

It’s great that I’ve learnt so much over the years, but it is also disappointing where I’ve ended up. Essentially The ‘Dota 2 End Game Content’ just isn’t as enjoyable as the journey there, especially when you are on the smaller servers. I thoroughly enjoyed the journey over the years, but in a sense I currently have a diminished ability to have enjoyable pubs. You start to take the game more seriously, while simultaneously moving up the pack.

If you’ve managed to come this far in this rather lengthy article, you should be able to work out that you can do your own recent game history to see what story is waiting to be told. Your PDT Rating is awaiting to be found. First off, make sure you look at the overall average per metric, and not per game. Also make sure you separate your wins and losses into two different piles. Your data might also come out a bit odd if you play too much of the one hero, especially if they have a tendency to not do much metric-wise.

My Trench Theory is that there is no static Trench for the entire game, instead every player has their own Trench locations. A trench is simply a place where your a disproportionate amount of your teammates are consistently metrically worse than you. I believe that Dota has a mobile trench, which is relative to every individual. Using this system you can work out if you a currently in a Trench or not. I tried to evade confirmation bias at all turns, and have used a fairly large sample size of my most recent games (about a month of Dota). You too can use your last games, that were played unknowing of PDT Rating, to see how you measure up. It should take less than a game of Dota 2 to work out, which isn’t that long considering how valuable you might find the information. Being able to identify MM Hell is a beautiful thing. But it’s also something that if you say, people will give you stink eye for and say you’re just shifting blame.

Either way, I sat on this article for so long I thought I should finally put it out there, even with the whole “focus on your own game” mantra that’s popular these days. You aren’t the only variable in your games.

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Can CS:GO Overtake Dota 2?

Both Dota 2 and Counter-Strike: Global Offensive have slowly expanded over time. CS:GO started off incredibly slow, but has exploded since the end of 2013. Dota 2 had a sizable boost coming out of beta, but has been very unreliable over time. Dota 2 likes to force an artificial peak, such as with the yearly International and 2015’s New Bloom event. Once these events are over, the player base dwindles, and takes a few months to get back on it’s feet. Whereas CS appears to have nicely spread out and well received Majors, which cause an influx of new players who stay around for months to come. Overall I will look at these two games since Jan 2013, splitting the periods into 9 quarters; the first quarter being 2013’s January, February and March. Note that I had to use a combined method of average players + peaks to create a model to calculate growth.

Dota 2

The New Bloom event had small 10ish minute windows that the event was active for, which meant there was a mass introdus and exodus before and after the event windows. This created a massive peak amount of players, giving a massive illusion of growth. However if you look closer, Dota 2 growth has been stalling for about three quarters now however. Dota 2 grew about 35% in the first two quarters of 2014, but for other half of the year it only grew ~2%. If we look at the quarter to quarter changes:

Quarter growth of Dota

You can see that 2013 was a massive year for Dota 2, growing massively over the year. But things really started to slow down towards the end, which continued ever since. The International in July 2014 was a peak, but the player base took a significant hit for months afterwards. Dota 2 is coming back on track, but the numbers are somewhat higher than they should be due to the sly way the previous event worked. Luckily for Dota however, that a 10% growth when your player base is hundreds of thousands of players still results in a solid increase in players. It’s just that the growth has definitely slowed down a notch, or rather, a jeb (hue hue).

CS:GO

Counter Strike has a few problems when competing and comparing with Dota 2. While CS was released in August 2012 – when Dota’s peak concurrent was only 100k – the game didn’t go anywhere for months. It wasn’t until an entire year had past before the masses started taking any notice of the game. This effectively gave Dota 2 more than whole years head start, which Dota used to sextuple its player base. Since then however, CS has been exploding faster than an adolescent, with solid growths each quarter.

Counter-Strike has this impressive feat of mostly keeping the players it gains from when the game explodes. CS grew by 50% in July/August 2014, and then held steady for two months, keeping the massive amount of players gained. Later on, we launched more than NASA with another 50% growth in December/January. Keep in mind with the way percentage based growth works, is that growth is technically better the more players you have. A 20% increase of 20k players is only 4k more players, whereas a 20% growth when you have 300k players is an additional 60k more players. Which results in 60k more players not only buying the game, but purchasing cosmetics.

Comparison

If we look at the average amount of players each game has at one time, Dota 2 is still well ahead. But CS:GO has actually closed the gap non stop.

When we started, Dota had ten times more players than CS. Whereas this quarter (which technically still has two days to go), Dota is only two and a half times bigger. Even this month has reduced this once more. So Can CS:GO beat Dota 2? Well, it will very soon for a few hours each day. The players of each games live and/or play at different times. Dota peaks around six hours earlier than CS:GO, which means CS:GO will end up being the most game played on Steam for a few hours every day. In fact just yesterday, while the concurrent peaks were 400k players off, CS was within 20k players of having more players than Dota at a point in time. Overall CS:GO is on a really good trajectory to overtake Dota, but will take some hard work.

The Next Step Forward

Both games have big things on the horizon. Dota 2’s custom game modes come to mind. But even a ‘new Valve hero’ was something many of us have been hoping for, but Dota 1 hasn’t seen a new hero in 21 months and there are still two more heroes to port. With about four months until TI5 LAN, are Valve going to release all this before that time?

Counter-Strike: Global Offensive seems far more reasonable. Majors will continue to happen, and new players flow in without massive work on new heroes or game modes. Even most the new maps come in the form of Operations, where the maps are mostly created by the community – with another Operation due soon. Valve just seems to put very little effort into CS:GO; there’s many things lacking. There’s essentially no profiles, gaping holes in the system, and even DotaBuff utterly destroys any CS:GO stat sites, which suggest to me that there are massive flaws in the CS:GO API. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see the global popularity of maps based on skill bracket? Or to see how sided a map is at will by bracket? Maybe scouts are ungodly good on Aztec, or a pub team with 3 Tec-9s in pistol round wins 90% of the time. Who knows?

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On a side-note, after 6000 hours of Dota I started playing CS:GO. I make a slightly humorous video every ~25 hours recording my progress. The idea is that you can see first hand my improvement over time, an interesting experiment. I started as a noob, but hopefully will learn over time.

Episode 5:

 

How Player’s Lust for MMR Saps Enjoyment and Drops Diversity

For the past 5 weeks, ending last Sunday, I have been collecting data on hero popularity in Very High Ranked games, to see how much they change from week to week. Players tend to lust for MMR, and will do almost anything they can to try and increase it. This is especially so among the top 9% of players, aka Very High. With DAC running in the past few weeks, I’ve noticed dramatic changes in the hero pool from week to week. And all of it seems to result in far less enjoyable games.

Gainers

Above are the 6 biggest gainers in popularity for the 5 week period, including their increase from week to week. Someone like Shadow Fiend was only in 15% of games at the start of the experiment, but as the weeks went on he skyrocketed (by 26 raw percent) to being in 42% of games. You’ll notice across the board that the heroes that become more popular, are the heroes that people believe to be the most OP right now. People want to gain MMR, and the easiest way to do that is to pick a strong hero. Unfortunately this results in utterly one dimensional games, where the same heroes appear constantly with little to no variety in hero picks. But how one dimensional are they?

One Dimensional

So 5 weeks ago, Juggernaut was in 56% of all Very High ranked games, and it fell off sharply to Axe in 38% and Slark in 32%. But as the weeks went by, you can see how one dimensional the hero picks become. There used to only be 1 hero with more than 40% pick rate, now there are 3. While there used to be 8 heroes above 20% pick rate, and now there is actually 11. What’s happening is that people are deserting heroes across the board, and picking more and more of the top heroes. Week by week, we lose massive amounts of hero diversity, as players prefer the top 20 heroes over the other 86. Note that this experiment was done prior to Winter Wyvern.

Frequency

At the start of the year, the top 10 most picked heroes were picked the same amount as the bottom 63 heroes. In just 5 weeks, this has increased to 74. So the top 10 heroes are now picked as much as the bottom 74 heroes. The top 10 heroes now make up 33% of all picks, 22 heroes make up the middle 34%, and 74 heroes make up the bottom 33%. This means that you’re likely to see at least 3 of the top 10 heroes every game. Hero diversity is plummeting recently, and every week that went by made it worse. The actual heroes varied as people shifted to the new 6.83 meta, but as far as hero diversity goes on a daily basis, we are seeing an ungodly amount of the same stuff.

The most bizarre thing is that hero win rate is sometimes irrelevant to a hero’s popularity. Across the board, the heroes that aren’t played very often generally have terrible win rates, with the least played hero Enchantress boasting a terrible 36% winrate in Ranked Very High. Alchemist is closely ahead at 39%. However we still see popular heroes that also have bad or mediocre win rates. Doom was popular for weeks, even though he only had a 44% win rate. Slark is also similar, he is insanely popular, but only has a 47% win rate in Ranked Very High. What appears to be happening is that people felt that Slark and Doom were OP, even though their win rates have been mediocre for a while. They give into the circlejerk of OP/Dumpster heroes, without actually looking at their own games or pubs as a whole. Luna, Treant, and Night Stalker are almost never seen in these games, but all have over 50% win rates. Luna is a carry that fell off extremely hard in the pro scene post TI4, but in pubs she still wins about the same as Axe and Shadow Fiend, and wins more than the popular Slark, Storm Spirit, Void, Tidehunter, and Skywrath.

I averaged the pick rates for every group of 10 heroes, and compared the weeks (explained below)

Who’s Sapping my Fun?

With so many games of Dota 2 under my belt, I have found that the game is more enjoyable with variety. We all want to win, but we’re not playing for a million dollars. We are ultimately playing in our free time, and part of that is wanting to have fun. I personally don’t have much fun when one hero is in 60% of the games, and then another is in 56% of them. Having to play every second game with the same 2 heroes gets old really fast. Pudge was the most popular hero in Dota 2 for about 3 years straight, but he almost never was in more than 40% of games. Three heroes top that right now. In all Skill brackets Pudge has actually been bumped down to third by both Sniper and Juggernaut, as 6.83 swings into full force.

In the graph above, I averaged the win rate for the top 10 heroes, and then compared it to the average win rate of heroes 11-20, 21-30, etc You can see that the top 20 heroes gained in popularity, while the bottom 80 dropped. The 30-50th most popular heroes were hit hardest, really gutting the ‘often picked’ heroes.

How To Solve?

After looking at all the numbers for weeks on end, I think the BanPick game mode is honestly the best solution. That is a game mode where everyone gets ~20 seconds to ban 1 hero each, and after that we go to the normal picking phase. If you didn’t ban, then no one is banned. I think this would not only make the game more enjoyable, but make the pool more diverse. People are likely to either ban heroes that are played way too much, or have insanely high win rate. You could ban counters, but more often than not you’re just sick of the ‘spin-to-win trio’. Besides, if matchmaking does it’s job then similar size parties should be matched together, and thus will have the same advantage in any possible ‘counter-banning’. Besides, a hero counter will always slip through the cracks.

BanPick also has the distinct advantage of being similar enough to AllPick that people will actually play it. Matchmaking in CaptainsMode is generally far worse than in AllPick, especially on smaller servers like Australia, since there is a much smaller amount of people searching in that mode. BanPick being similar to AllPick works in its advantage, as people will actually queue for it, giving the gamemode a big enough player pool to get close MMRs quickly.

Closing Thoughts

This patch, 6.83, has resulted in many things to dislike. I think overall though, the plummeting hero diversity is what I dislike most. People are still shifting heroes from old meta to new meta, so we do see some changes in heroes week to week. The heroes are starting to stabilize though, as DAC ends, and overall the heroes picked are becoming increasingly one dimensional; creating some awfully repetitive games. People want to raise MMR, so they are picking what they think works (the same stuff), which I believe decreases the enjoyment of the game. This appears to be pushed to the extreme in 6.83, more so than in previous patches. Dota does have pretty good hero diversity, but every week of 6.83 that passes, is a week where we lose hero diversity. In week 1 there were only 3 heroes appearing in less than 2% of games, this increased to 9 heroes. Both high and low, we are seeing massive shifts towards more of the same. Don’t forget that the old Dota strategy is to stop the snowball, before it becomes too big to handle. At the moment, we seem to be ~20% less diverse than we were 60 days ago.

Mythbusters: Is the Hero Pool Really Getting More Diverse?

There’s an old theory with Dota heroes: every hero is viable in pubs, but far less are viable for pros. More recently casters and players have been noting how almost every hero is viable now, how every patch seems to expand the hero pool to make more and more heroes legitimate picks. But is this is all psychological? They’ve seen games come and go, but they’ve never sat down and compared the numbers. So I’m going to see whether the hero pool is statistically more viable now. Is the hero pool more diverse than years gone by? Or is it all in the mind?

The 40 percenters

Here on Zota I like to use the term “top picks”, that is a hero who has more than 40% ban/pick rate in the pro scene. I record them each month in an easy to find and search page, and like to consult it when curious as to the last time a hero was popular. So let’s start with this, I have 25 months of data here, dating back to December 2012.

What we see is that for the last 25 months of professional Dota, there has been about 15-20 top picks every month. At the moment Brew, Razor, and Lycan, whereas 12 months ago it was Visage, Lifestealer, and Dragon Knight. We see a constantly rotating roster of top picks, but the raw number of them doesn’t change much. They’ve gone down ever so slightly, but the trend is awfully mild from this metric.

Month to Month to Month

I want to compare December 2012 with December 2013 with December 2014. Three consecutive years of professional Dota could give us an insight into how the hero pool has evolved over the years. The difficulty with doing this exercise is that the hero pool has expanded over the years. In 2012 we had only 83 heroes, 2013 was 97, and 2014 is 106. This makes it a struggle to compare, but I think the best way to do split them into percentages of the hero pool based on their pick/bate rate. Top picks are 40% or more, Popular are 20-40%, Unpopular are 5-20%, and Outcasts are less than 5%.

In December 2012, we had 25.3% of the hero pool as top picks, but heroes fell off hard though, with only 13% being popular. We then ended up with 25% of the hero pool as unpopular, and an absurd 36% contested in less than 5% of games. You can see why I’ve got this ultra low outcast category, because in 2012 a third of the pool were very rarely seen. This is what I refer as a skewed hero pool: the top 25% of heroes are responsible for the 70% of all picks and bans. It’s like the Dota equivalent of wealth inequality, we have hero inequality where the chosen few are constantly favored while a third of the heroes live in the slums; outcast to the world. But let’s see how this compares to 2013 and 2014.

The top picks decrease over time. You see, while the raw number of top picks is staying similar as shown far above, since more heroes are being added to the pool it becomes a lower percentage of the pool. But all these new heroes aren’t changing the dynamic of the hero pool too much.

Looking at the raw data, you can see that the new heroes just end up padding out the bottom of the pool. The first tier of heroes are very similar, while we do see a big increase in second tier heroes, which is a big positive. But the majority of heroes seem to end up being rarely picked. In 2012 60% of the heroes are in the bottom two tiers, while in 2014 66% of the heroes are.

The Verdict

Are more heroes becoming more viable? Yes, but it’s very mild. We still have about a third of the pool rarely picked, and we still have around 18 heroes being top picks. It seems to me that the only thing about the hero pool that is more diverse, is that when someone is not picking a top hero, they have a bunch of heroes to choose from. In that regard you are seeing a lot more diversity, the problem is that we still are seeing a large amount of drafts central on the top 40 heroes. In 2012 we had the top 25% of heroes taking 70% of all picks and bans. In December 2014 we had the top 25% taking 66% of all picks and bans. The hero pool has expanded so you do get more heroes in the top 25%, which should be noted. It is more diverse than before, but it’s a very mild trend.

Basically you have chicken for dinner 10 nights a fortnight, on the other 4 nights you alternate between beef, pork, salmon, and kangaroo. You eat a wide variety of meats overall (moreso than the 11 chicken nights two years ago), but there’s no denying that you’re still primarily a chicken guy. That’s the Dota 2 hero picks in a nutshell, mostly the same stuff, but a lot of variety on the odd chance you do want to mix it up. The hero pool is 27% bigger than 2012, but that’s just 27% more stuff to choose from on the non-chicken nights. That’s a pretty solid analogy of what’s happening.

Percentage of the hero pool that is picked outside of even distribution, with 10% leeway each side of even distribution classified as ‘Just Right’.

Preconceived Notions?

I think the explanation as to why people feel that almost every hero is viable ultimately comes down to perception and psychology. Most people reading this know about those filthy Mirana pickers, but in December Mirana was only drafted 12% of the time. She fell off hard in the pro scene, but you still remember what she’s capable of. What I believe happens, is that because you remember when a hero was top stuff, you think better of the hero for months to come.

You’ve seen Miranas have massive game impact, so even when they fall off in popularity you still rate them highly. Given enough time watching pro Dota, the natural cycle of heroes will result in you seeing almost every hero have their day. When a Hero is incredibly popular, you see the hero’s strengths at work, and even when they fall off, you still remember their strengths. Rarely some heroes get nerfed into the ground like Alchemist, but many heroes like Sand King fall off massively without anything happening to them, or just very mild nerfs.

It’s about perception. You perceive a greater amount of heroes to be viable now than a year ago, because you’ve seen new heroes work in professional settings. In recent months, Zeus has come from 3 years of being ignored, to being contested 33% in December. Even if he falls off, you’ll remember his strengths. Mjolnir’s Static Charge had a similar fate, people ignored it for years, even though it had its moments. Suddenly it becomes top stuff with a buff, and even though it was nerfed later on, the Dota 2 community now has much more awareness about it. You becomes aware of strengths and potential when something is popular, and you remember this for years to come.

Previous Article: Juggernaut’s Fury, running the pub numbers of 6.83 Juggernaut

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Juggernaut’s Fury

Juggernaut is 6.83’s biggest problem. While patches in previous years have had issues with Spirit Breaker or Centaur Warrunner, 6.83 firmly belongs to Juggernaut. So let’s take a look at what’s going on.

Jugger0%, no Jugger100%

Juggernaut has been rising in popularity all year, and even in December 2012 he was the 10th most played hero in the game. He’s always been a top pick for pubbers, but in 6.83 he is the new Phantom Assassin. Already appearing in about 20% of games in 6.82, making him the 9th most popular hero, Juggernaut soared in pick rate with the new patch. Four days ago he overtook 4th place Sniper, three days ago he overtook Phantom Assassin, and just yesterday he overtook Pudge. Yesterday, Juggernaut was the most played hero for the day. It’s incredibly impressive to knock Pudge off his pedestal.

Most annoyingly however, he’s boasting a very strong 56% win rate. In Very High he becomes even more unstoppable with a 58% win rate; second to only Omniknight.

Perpetually Buffed

If you look back over the years, you’ll notice that Juggernaut hasn’t been very popular in the pro scene.

Pick/Ban % of Juggernaut for 2013 and 2014

Just two months ago in November, he was the 96th most contested hero for professionals. He was last popular as basically a flavor-of-the-month in May 2013, where he was the 16th most popular hero. 6.78 came soon after this however, and players moved onto other heroes.

This generally results in IceFrog doing one thing: buffing patch after patch. In fact, Juggernaut has almost never been directly nerfed. Juggernaut has been buffed since the first International in 2011, which was version 6.72. Even before that, the last nerf was over 7 years ago. This is an incredible time period to go without receiving a proper direct nerf. So if you’re sick and tired of the current Ebolanaut, you can feel better knowing it was at least 7 long years in the making. He’s so strong now, that his ultimate is basically Omniknightslash.

Counter?

If you’re looking to counter him then you’re in trouble, he’s often a bit tricky to do so. Stats wise a good Meepo is your best bet, but if you can’t micro so well a Drow, Abaddon or Ursa performs well. The problem that normally arises however, is that the heroes who are good against Jugg generally aren’t laning against him. Someone like Drow will be in a pickle if Juggernaut was able to get constant early game kills with Blade Fury.

I feel that there’s two main strategies to beating a Juggernaut. Ideally you want to Silence him and then kill him before it ends. This works well for heroes like Clinkz, Riki and Drow, especially since most Juggernauts either don’t get a BKB, or get one really late as a 4th or 5th item. Sometimes however Blade Fury will silence himself, which is where a Drow, Clinkz, or Ursa can often do large amounts of physical damage before it ends. With Manta rising in popularity, Riki is sometimes more desirable. The other main strategy is to simply not die during Omnislash, such as with the likes of Abaddon or Omniknight.

Having extra creeps to tank up the slashes can work for this as well. It of course, also helps if you have a lane that won’t feed him kills when he uses Blade Fury. Sending a poor hero to solo offlane against him so you can have a jungler generally results in feeding. Duos generally work better, but you really have to play smart. Later on in the game, having a creep or illusion to kill the Healing Ward from afar is also useful, melee heroes can get kited by it during fights, while during pushing a safe option is desirable. Even something more creative like a Spirit Lance and then microing the illusion to kill the ward can be useful, while PL can also break the Omnislash with his new Doppelganger skill. Alternatively, Oracle’s Fate’s Edict is incredibly good at preventing kills during the laning phase as it gives 100% magical resistance.

His Spin and Omni make him incredibly difficult to gank past laning, perhaps even turning it back around on you, whereas in laning you’re likely to have problems. Even Juggernaut’s Base HP regen is higher than normal. Most heroes have 0.25 base HP regen, Juggernaut has 0.75.

Nerf Hammer

I agree that it’s definitely time that Juggernaut gets nerfed. He’s become a hero that is strong at every point in the game. His spin works well early on, while the ward is great for pushing and sustain, and the great crit + good farming + low BAT makes him formidable late game. He could get the Terrorblade treatment, where his early game is nerfed slightly. I think you should start off by removing the bonus HP regen and maybe 10 movespeed as well. Then consider slightly lowering the cast range of Omnislash.

On the bright side, Juggernaut is the 2nd most picked hero for the month in professional Dota. Even though it’s only 8 days into the month, he already has a 84% pick/ban rate, second only to Brewmaster. Perhaps 6.83b will have some minor nerfs to both heroes.

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6.83 Win Rate Changes

As I do every patch, I like to wait about a week before running the numbers on win rate changes for the patch. I feel like a few days are needed for things to stabilize, as the first days are often erratic. These extra days also allow me to spot trends, as sometimes it takes a while for players to adjust to changes; such as to the removal of Impale’s hero targeting a few patches ago.

Winners

Troll Warlord takes the top spot, although closely followed by Jugg. With Troll’s fast attack speed he’s impacted by the Maximum attack speed change to some extent. Although they were also changed, with the Fervor-fix being lovely, while Jugg’s increased base damage and a better critical strike early game massively increased his potency early game. Sniper’s change was also very strong, but I feel like it will take some getting used to as people adjust their builds to the new way. Previously people who maxed Shrapnel first had a better win rate. Everyone who didn’t have it maxed by level 7 or 8 had a better win rate getting stats over a late Shrapnel. I will run grab data next month to see how the changes to Shrapnel tie into skill build effectiveness. Bounty Hunter is not pictured, but is a few places lower with a 1.23% gain.

For placings, Juggernaut jumps up 17 places to have the 6th best pub win rate, right above a 7th place Crystal Maiden. Juggernaut has been a top 10 most played hero for a while now, and he has been consistently increasing in play rate this year, so I imagine him to be the next Tinker or PA. CM and Juggernaut have a very solid 64% win rate together. Abaddon also pops up to 2nd highest win rate, while Troll has 10th highest with 55%.

Losers

 

Ogre Magi is hardest hit, but it’s not as bad as you think since he still has a 52.7% win rate. Pro-Scene heroes like Death Prophet and Brewmaster dropped as expected, while Kunkka will take some adjusting to. His win rate is actually slightly dropping as the days go by; I imagine a lot of people don’t know what order to skill the hero anymore.Like with Sniper, I am watching Kunkka’s build to see how things changes.

Overall the losses seemed pretty mild, probably since there honestly weren’t that many nerfs to begin with. No hero has been put to dumpster tier, which can’t be to said to Alchemist a few patches ago. It’s nice to see IF taking more care with the nerfs this time round.

The Who Else

Some heroes that people expected to rise or fall did very little of the sort. Lone Druid had a massive change as his play rate shot up on Day 1, but afterwards it went back to normal and his win rate only dropped -0.15%. Which is basically nothing. Lifestealer had a similar treatment with -0.20%, and Faceless Void and Witch Doctor were both around a -0.90% change. Alchemist only increased 0.38%, and Slardar basically didn’t even move.

Diffusal Blade changes seem to have basically no impact on the game what so ever. People originally thought the Huskar and Ursa UAM removal would be crazy, but everything adjusted. I imagine in the future Caustic and Liquid Fire will be removed for simply being unnecessary, while Frost Arrows will be looked at as well.

Overall it was a rather mild patch, 6.82 was far more drastic. With gains as high as 7% and losses as big as -5% as can be viewed at the link below.

See Also: 6.82 Win Rate Changes – Previous Patch’s Changes
See Also: Dota in 2014 – Statistical Summary of the Year

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Dota in 2014

It has been 18 months since a hero was added to the game; a very odd feat. While 4 heroes have been ported, there hasn’t actually been an original hero added – which is very bizarre. And yet, I would still say 2014 was the biggest year for the game. So I decided to take a look at what 2014 did for Dota, from the important stats, to some interesting observations.

Charges

In 2012, IceFrog created Ember Spirit; adding his charged based Fire Remnants to the game. Eighteen months later in 2013, Earth Spirit came along with his charged based remnants as well. Then in 2014 he kicked it up a notch. In 6.81, Shadow Demon Aghs was added to the game, becoming charge based. A patch later in 6.82, Riki was retooled and gained blink-strike charges. In 6.83 Sniper received a similar treatment with Shrapnel. It may seem bizarre to start off a ‘2014 in Dota’ article talking about charges, but I thought I would start off with something less number based (there’s a lot of stats/data down below). For 3 full version-patches in a row he has added charges, while the two Spirits only hit Dota 2 at the end of 2013. So for most Dota 2 players, they’ve had 5 charged based abilities in only 13 months, for years previously only items had charges. I find IceFrog’s recent favoring of the charge system really interesting, but almost never talked about. I wonder which future abilities will receive the charge treatment, if any.

See Also: A basic timeline of Dota 2 versions with heroes added

By The Numbers

In 2014, Dota 2 has increased its playerbase by ~35%. In 2013 the highest concurrent peak was 700k in November, where as this year we peaked at 960k during the Manifold Paradox event. The average amount of players online at any point has also had a similar boost, with about a 35% increase in numbers.

While gathering data on viewers is tricky, since you need to add numbers from over 6 different sources and then there’s still the unknown number of people who have multiple platforms open at once (such as Twitch and DotaTV), Professional Dota excelled in 2014. As far as prizepools go, 65% of all Dota 2 prize money was in 2014 with over 16 million dollars awarded. Last year, The International was ~65% of all prize money for the year, which is about the same as 2014. This is pretty great considering TI4 raised an absurd 10.9 million dollars and still managed a similar percent. World Cyber Arena 2014 was the second biggest tournament with ~400k prizepool, while The Summit 2 and i-League were closely behind with ~300k prize pool. While this may seem like the professional scene is heavy carried by TI, I think people overlook the fact that teams can still earn good ‘Alpine Ursa’ money outside of TI.

Even this site – Zota – did well with over 200,000 page hits this year. I hope that all of you that have visited liked what you read!

See Also: BTS and DC Have The Best Parts of the $40 Million Dota 2 Ticket Industry Pie

Pub Heroes

I tend to find that people overlook how much pubs change over the course of many months; since it slowly changes over the weeks. I find it very similar to weight gain/loss; you don’t notice it if you see the person every day, but if you haven’t seen them in a few months you really notice the change. So how have pubs changed? I compared January pubs to the last few days.

Win rate Gains and Losses since January 2014

Troll is the biggest winner of the year by pub win rate, although about 40% of these gains are in the 6.83 patch, he still improved drastically over the year. Juggernaut has also been consistently buffed; he has a better BAT than a professional cricket player. For losses, Death Prophet and Alchemist take the cake. IF nerfed Alch into dumpster tier with the changes to stun/vision, while Death Prophet has been so popular in the pro-scene that she has received constant nerfs. Exorcism cooldown is 45% longer after 3 nerfs to it. Please note that win rate changes are shown in raw percent (50% winrate to 55% is a +5% gain).

Play rate changes for the year, in Actual %

As far as play rate of heroes go we also see a bunch of changes. Please note that the above table uses actual percent (5% play rate to 10% play rate is a +100(%) gain). Phantom Assassin and Void became the atypical pub carries of 2014, both more than doubling in popularity. Tinker also saw massive gains, with an extra 80% in playtime, and this is after the massive nerfs to the hero. Veno and Visage about halved in popularity, which is pretty interesting since Visage is already incredibly unpopular. Comparing play rate to win rate is interesting, Troll has silently become the biggest win rate gainer, but is only played 35% more (not pictured). Another interesting tidbit is that the omnipresent Pudge actually became more popular this year, with a ~25% increase in play.

Pro Dota

In professional Dota the game changes as always. In January the most popular heroes were: Alchemist, Outworld Devourer, Visage, Timbersaw, Venomancer, Clockwerk, Crystal Maiden, Nature’s Prophet, Nyx, Enchantress, Bristleback, Storm Spirit, Lifestealer, Invoker, Slark, Dragon Knight, and Luna.

If you compare that list to today, almost all of these heroes have dropped massively in popularity. The current popular heroes are 100% different heroes. The top pick/banned heroes for November 2014 were Brewmaster, Tidehunter, Skywrath Mage, Death Prophet, Ogre Magi, Razor, Faceless Void, Vengeful Spirit, Viper, Centaur, Lycan, Batrider, Puck, and Jakiro.

People like to complain about a stale meta-game, but we are seeing complete shifts in popular heroes. This is the first time Ogre Magi has been popular in the pro scene since he was added to Captain’s Mode in May 2012. Even Jakiro is popular currently, but was last popular in December 2012 after the 6.75 Ice Path rework. The pro scene is constantly changing, and while some heroes last for months at a time (such as Batrider and Lycan), the pool of heroes always sees massive changes when you zoom out enough.

See Also: My Dota 2 Pro Hero Lists – An easy-access representation of popular pro-scene heroes over time

The Year’s MMR End

This year was ultimately a massive leap for Dota 2. There has been Agh upgrades added for 10 heroes: Tinker, Abaddon, KotL, Shadow Demon, Earth Spirit, Elder Titan, Phoenix, Sven, Timbersaw and Treant. Not to mention the revamped and buffed upgrades for a many heroes, such as Puck and Jakiro. I focus a lot on stats and theory on Zota, but I’m amazed by the leaps forward the game has taken this year. Even with myself, I’ve learnt many things and have constantly improved. This year alone I have a 60% win rate with Lina from 80 games, even though people slur my Lina playstyle/builds constantly. I’ve managed to forge my own niche and playstyle with her, rising above the 45% pub win rate she has.

Looking back at the year is very thought provoking, and I want to emphasize that the entire goal should be to improve, and to keep an open mind. Since MMR was added at the end of last year, I’ve seen a shift away from getting better at the game, to how to win the most. Inflating your MMR with a hero with around 60% pub winrate doesn’t make you a better player, it just is an easy way to increase your MMR number. The focus should always be on becoming a better player, not inflating your number to a place where you gloat about in teamchat whenever someone points out a mistake you made, or when you have a bad game.

I’m in about the top 200 for number of Dota 2 games played, and yet I never play ranked. I find this recent addition has made people no longer focus on improving across the board, but instead on how hard -allpick counterpicking, language option exploits, and imba heroes can stack the odds in your favor. For me, one of the challenges this year was not only doing well with Lina when I lose, but winning constantly with a hero who has a pathetic 45% win rate in Very High. I find it far more skillful to be able to constantly perform well with heroes that many consider trash, than to win with a hero like Wraith King.

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